Coffee—a daily ritual for millions of Poles—is increasingly becoming a luxury. Have you ever wondered why the cost of a bag of coffee or a cup at a café is so expensive?
Global shocks in coffee production
One of the most important factors is climate change and its impact on coffee-growing areas. Droughts, excessive rainfall, and in recent years, frosts have contributed to this, especially in Brazil—a key region for global Arabica production. These extreme conditions have led to smaller harvests and limited supply, which in turn drives up the price of the raw material.
Add to this the fact that global coffee bean supplies are currently at relatively low levels – supply is not keeping up with growing demand.
As a result, the price of Arabica coffee on the exchanges is breaking records. In February 2025, it exceeded a whopping $4.4 per pound (~454 g)—almost double the price of the previous year.
Increase in production, transport and logistics costs
Everything is getting more expensive: fertilizers, fuel, energy, labor—which means the cost of coffee production is constantly rising. Add to that the cost of transportation and ocean freight—global supply chains are now highly sensitive to delays and fluctuations in fuel prices.
These factors translate into the prices of imported coffee to Europe and Poland - this is another stage of cost increase for importers, brands and roasters, which ultimately pass on to the consumer.
Growing demand and market speculation
Increased demand, especially in Asia, is also a factor – coffee consumption in China has more than doubled in the last decade. Growing interest in specialty coffees in Europe and North America is also fueling competition for raw materials.
Another element is stock market speculation: investors and funds increasingly treat coffee as an investment commodity, which causes additional price volatility.
Moreover, an increasing proportion of production is being left in the producing countries – currently almost 30% of global production – which limits the amount of coffee reaching export markets.
Poland - the specificity of the local market
When we look at Poland, the effect of global trends is intensified by local factors:
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The costs of running a coffee shop —rent, energy, and employee salaries—are high, especially in large cities. This makes it difficult to maintain profitability while maintaining moderate prices.
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Structure of trade margins : stores and chains are reluctant to give up their margins - instead of permanent discounts, they offer point promotions.
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Comparison with Italy : expert Tomasz Starzyk notes that in Italy, an espresso brewed at a bar usually costs between €1 and €1.5 (~PLN 5), while in Poland we often pay 2-3 times more for the same service.
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Scale of the market and consumption : the coffee market in Poland is estimated at approximately PLN 7 billion annually, including retail sales and catering.
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Rapid retail price increases : in July, statistics showed that ground coffee was on average 18.3% more expensive than a year earlier, and instant coffee 16.8%. In June, annual increases reached >20%.
How do we experience these changes as consumers?
For a coffee lover, this means:
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Higher prices in stores : Selected specialty coffees, which were previously available at moderate prices, are now becoming more expensive.
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A cup of coffee is more expensive at a café : local businesses have to cover all the costs that accrue, so menu prices usually rise faster than general inflation.
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Changing consumer preferences : some people may turn to cheaper alternatives – supermarket brands, instant coffees or low-price blends.
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Risk of market exit : smaller roasteries or cafes that lack capital reserves may find it difficult to survive with constantly rising costs.
Are we in for a further price increase?
Experts' statements are not optimistic. Forecasts indicate possible annual price increases of 20–30% in the retail and restaurant segments.
There's no single, simple solution—raw material markets are dependent on climatic conditions and global logistics. But the coffee industry has some adaptability options: cost optimization, supply chain efficiency, developing local sources, and negotiating with suppliers.
Summary: Coffee is getting more expensive – but why?
Coffee prices in Poland and around the world aren't rising by accident. They're the result of a combination of global factors (climate, production, speculation) and local factors (business costs, margin structure). For consumers, this means greater consideration—making informed choices, seeking value for money, and supporting local brands that strive to maintain a balance between quality and cost.